Apple: A Product Plateau? – BusinessWeek
Posted on: October 2, 2008
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Where does Apple go from here? The question lies at the heart of the media and industry buzz that so often surrounds a company adept at surprising and confounding even the most jaded observers. It’s particularly pressing in light of the oblique reference to a “new product transition” made by Apple (AAPL) Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer during a July conference call with analysts.
So I am left wondering, what might Apple have under its belt to surprise and delight customers over the next 6 to 24 months? Indulge me while I consider the prospect that at least for the foreseeable future, Apple has done virtually everything it could reasonably be expected to do, given consumer needs and the current state of tech and the economy. There are only so many world-changing moments that even Apple can create.
Apple has had quite a string of them in the past several years. The launch of the first iPod, for example, occurred seven years ago this month. The rest, as they say, is history. The iPod for Mac users begat the iPod for Microsoft (MSFT) Windows users, which begat the iTunes store, AppleTV, and the iPhone.
The Next Big Thing
Now the Web is rife with rumors that Apple will next introduce a device that bridges the gap between the iPod touch and the Mac—a machine that’s one part mini-mobile PC and one part media and entertainment device. The idea seems obvious to anyone who’s used the iPod touch for e-mail and Web-browsing but wants a larger screen. While other PC companies like Dell (DELL) and Asustek build mini-notebooks, Apple could best them all, or so the argument goes.
But then what? As obvious as the path to a tablet device seems now, I have trouble imagining the next obvious path that Apple might follow in 2009 and 2010. In fact, the company may very well be nearing a product plateau. And here’s the real kicker: That may not be a bad thing.
Make no mistake. I see the potential for developments with established Apple product lines. Perhaps as soon as next year, the iPhone will evolve into a family of phones. Much like the iPod now comes in four flavors—touch, nano, classic, and shuffle—it’s fair to expect that the iPhone will come in more than one model. The iPhone nano, for example, might appeal to those who think the current model is too big or too expensive.
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